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A lot at stake, to say the least

January 17th, 2008

The Year of the Gun: Second Amendment Rights and the Supreme Court
Written by Profs Glenn Harlan Reynolds & Brannon P. Denning

About Heller:

It involves the scope of a right that many Americans regard as highly important, but that has not been signifi­cantly addressed by the Supreme Court before, and it does so in an unusually open national election year, with no incumbent or obvious successor running for president.

This is going to be a watershed year for guns rights, and though I’m optimistic I’m not overly so. This is surprisingly new ground, and things are quite unpredictable. As much as we hope things are going to turn out well (right) we cannot dismiss the possibility that they may go the other way.

The District of Columbia gun ban under question is so draco­nian that it can plausibly stand only if the Court finds no individual right to arms at all.

This is the key point. And on this point far more harm can be done than good. The ban can be struck down on a number of issues in a number of ways, but if it stands (however unlikely and unjust we believe that possibility to be) it will be a gigantic victory for those claiming that the Second Amendment refers to a collective right. And, of course, if that’s the case, we are in for a world of trouble.

In the conclusion:

Arguably, gun-rights supporters have much more at stake in Heller than their opponents. The Court’s adoption of the individual-rights reading may be little more than symbolic; if not, it may take years before the Court deigns to clarify its decision. But a rejection of their position would virtually repeal the Amendment, perhaps emboldening gun-control proponents whose initia­tives were often stymied by legislators’ invocation of the Second Amendment.

Go read the whole thing.

I’m no legal expert (to say the least) and I don’t mean to sound pessimistic. I’m not. Just don’t ignore the fact that though the potential gains for gun owners are big, the potential losses (however unlikely we think a loss might be) are HUGE.

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